As the 2024 election approaches, many anticipate that Donald Trump may prematurely declare victory on election night, regardless of the actual vote counts. During a recent interview, NBC’s Hallie Jackson raised the issue with Vice President Kamala Harris, who assured that the administration is prepared to handle the unfolding events. However, the nation’s experience with Trump in 2020 indicates we might not be ready for the chaos that could follow November 5.
In a repeat of 2020, we could find ourselves in a situation where Trump leads in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, only to have Harris declared the winner days later. This “blue shift” phenomenon, where late-counted ballots favor Democrats, could again lead to disinformation and confusion, creating a volatile atmosphere. While there’s a possibility of an Electoral College victory for Trump on election night, any close outcome will likely result in his refusal to concede, instead alleging election fraud.
In 2020, many voters cast their ballots by mail due to the pandemic, leading to a delay in counting those votes. This year, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not adjusted their laws to allow for the early processing of mail ballots, which means we may see a similar pattern. Early results may favor Trump, only to shift towards Democrats as mail-in ballots are counted. This situation can be leveraged by Trump and his allies to question the legitimacy of the vote, a tactic that may be intentional among certain Republican lawmakers.
To mitigate the expected confusion, it’s crucial that the media and election officials clearly communicate the process. Voters should be educated about the timing of results, emphasizing that the race may be “too early to call” rather than one candidate being “in the lead.” Transparency about the counting process, especially in major cities, is essential to prepare the public for potential delays.
Despite improved messaging, we should expect a well-organized campaign to spread doubts about the integrity of the election results. Over 230 Republican candidates have already cast doubt on the electoral process. With social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook struggling to control disinformation, the potential for misleading narratives is significant. This disinformation campaign may be exacerbated by foreign interference aimed at inciting division and unrest among Americans.
We must also consider the potential for violence surrounding election night. The uncertainty of delayed results could trigger unrest, and U.S. officials have warned of possible efforts by foreign entities to stoke chaos.
As we approach election night, it’s vital for all involved voters, media, and election officials to prepare for the unpredictable. The fallout from Trump’s potential declaration of victory, coupled with the delays in counting mail-in ballots, could create a perfect storm of confusion and unrest. By promoting patience and understanding of the electoral process, we can help ensure a fair and safe election in 2024.
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