Texas Senate Showdown Cruz vs Allred in a Tight Race

As the November 5 election approaches, incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz remains the favorite to win reelection against Democratic challenger Colin Allred. However, recent polling indicates that the race could be closer than anticipated, with some surveys showing the candidates tied.

Forecasting models, including those from 538, currently give Cruz an average lead of 3.4 points over Allred. Decision Desk HQ/The Hill reports a similar trend, with Cruz holding a 3.1-point advantage and a 76 percent chance of victory. This election is particularly critical for Democrats, as Allred aims to become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988.

A recent internal survey by GBAO Strategies for Allred’s campaign revealed a deadlock, with both candidates at 46 percent among likely voters. This poll, conducted from October 18 to 23, reflects a significant shift in momentum for Allred, who previously trailed Cruz by seven points. In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), Allred noted, “With 8 days to go, we’re in the 4th quarter, with no timeouts left.”

Other polls, however, suggest a different narrative. An Activote poll conducted from October 21 to 27 shows Cruz leading Allred by 5 points (52 percent to 47 percent). Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College survey from October 23 to 26 indicates Cruz with a 4-point advantage (50 percent to 46 percent)

Comparing this race to Cruz’s 2018 matchup against Beto O’Rourke, it’s clear that the Republican has a larger lead margin now than he did then, when he won by just 2.6 points in what was a historic, high-cost election. However, the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey presents a more competitive picture, showing Cruz with only a 1-point lead over Allred (48 percent to 47 percent).

This dynamic shift is partly attributed to Allred’s growing name recognition. An analysis by Emerson College Polling revealed that the percentage of voters unfamiliar with Allred decreased from 18 percent in early September to just 10 percent in late October.

For Democrats, flipping Cruz’s Senate seat is crucial for maintaining control of the Senate, where they currently hold a slim 51-49 majority. With Texas identified as a battleground state for both statewide and presidential elections, Allred’s campaign represents a key opportunity for the party.

As Election Day draws near, the intensity of the race is palpable. Both campaigns are ramping up efforts to engage voters and secure every last ballot, making this one of the most closely watched Senate races in recent memory.

As the race heats up in Texas, all eyes will be on the candidates in these final days leading to the election. Whether Cruz can fend off Allred’s challenge or whether the Democrat can pull off an upset remains to be seen, but the implications of this race are clear: it could reshape the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.